AI Scenarios: exploring the future of artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence is transforming the world in profound ways. But how will it shape the societies at large? How about geopolitics and global economy? What are the possible scenarios and their implications for different actors?

Nordic West Office and Miltton, in collaboration with VTT, McKinsey, Microsoft, Avanade, and other key organisations, have conducted an in-depth analysis of potential AI development outcomes. The summaries of the four resulting scenarios, outlining the progression of AI up until 2030, are provided below.

The scenarios are based on Nordic West Office’s Global Scenarios, which offer a systematic framework for understanding and preparing for global uncertainties. 

Our AI Scenarios explore the following questions

• How will the development and deployment of AI be influenced by geopolitical dynamics?
• How will artificial intelligence impact the domains of governance, security, economy and culture?
• How will the technological capabilities and ethical norms of different actors vary and affect their use of artificial intelligence?
• What are the opportunities and challenges for cooperation and competition among different actors and regions?

The scenarios are not predictions or preferences, but consistent narratives that illustrate alternative futures and bring up critical issues regarding the topic.

They aim to stimulate strategic thinking and dialogue among decision-makers, experts, and the public.

Digital Empires

A Cold War like technological rivalry between the US and China drives AI development.

At the core of the competition is the “chip war” and the race to secure access to scarce critical minerals.

The great powers manage to set boundaries of AI on crucial issues, but continue to test and push these limits. Cyber and hybrid security become of paramount importance.

Within the blocs formed by the superpowers and their allies, AI is used in alignment with the ethical ideals and norms of each system. In authoritarian regimes, AI is harnessed by the state for the control of citizens, which is accepted because it also raises the standard of living. In the global West, there is more democratically defined regulation and interest on issues like privacy and accessibility.

As techno-nationalism shifts focus away from free markets, the biggest productivity leap remains to be seen. In the private sector progress is slow but steady, and amongst the big industries, none is significantly ahead or behind.

Between the two great power blocs, the European Union seeks to strengthen its strategic autonomy but struggles to keep up with the competition. Smaller countries, such as Finland, suffer as the EU directs its strategic investments to larger member states.

AI Boom

The economic power and big data concentrated in the hands of tech giants pay off as AI fulfills its promise, leading to the most significant productivity leap in human history.

Industries continue to discover new applications as AI integrates seamlessly with quantum technology, robotics, and more. This fuels global hyper-growth, acting as a game changer that encourages states to cooperate once again.

The boundary between the digital and physical worlds is fading. Additionally, the integration of human and machine is deepening, empowering individuals but also raising new ethical dilemmas.

The downside of this scenario is the accumulation of wealth and influence among a select few. Besides widening the gap between winners and losers, the risk lies in dependency on the oligopoly of tech giants, due to their lack of transparency and the unpredictability of their management.

Finnish companies are not among the top AI developers but excel in applying technology to new sectors. At both the European and national levels, AI is helping to address the challenges posed by an aging population.

Digital Maze

The biggest promise of AI falls short due to issues arising from the development of new models.

Existing data masses become polluted, and there is a shortage of quality data, making AI models unreliable. Large industries struggle to harness AI effectively, and even the major technology companies find it challenging to deliver valuable products that boost productivity.

As a result, mainstream AI remains more of a consumer good, comparable to social media today. Embedded in personal devices, it engages individuals through hyper-personalized algorithms. This creates filters through which all digital content is viewed, with personal AI assistants interpreting also real-life events in a way that supports and enhances each person’s existing worldview.

As a larger portion of online content is AI-generated, neutral and unbiased information becomes harder to find, giving a whole new meaning to the post-truth era. Social cohesion is eroding, to the point where it is difficult to imagine any reversal of this fragmentation.

The shared overall vision of AI and its markets within the EU is weak. However, gold veins can be discovered in niche sectors where high-quality data can be successfully limited, presenting hit-or-miss opportunities also for Finland.

AI Doom

The focus of AI advancements is concentrated almost exclusively on military use. With major powers investing vast resources into military technologies, the development is driven by geopolitical tensions and conflicts worldwide. Technologies enhance military performance at administrative, strategic, and combat levels.

On the brink of World War III, humanity fears AI’s “Hiroshima moment” – a situation where a state or non-state actor unleashes the uncontrollable forces of autonomous weapon systems, ultimately threatening the existence of humankind.

Testing the equipment is constrained not by international agreements, but by the prospect of mutually assured destruction. At the community level, people emphasise solidarity and humanism amidst the uncertainty.

Although Finland finds itself at the mercy of larger global players, it continues to decisively employ its small-state realism. Business opportunities may arise from enhancing military and dual-use technology cooperation with the US and NATO.

Each scenario has its own strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats, winners and losers. The scenarios are not mutually exclusive, and elements of each scenario may coexist or transition into each other over time.

Nordic West Office is here to help your company understand the specific impacts AI development may have on you across different scenarios.

We offer customised workshops that give you with a thorough understanding of AI and equip your organisation with

1. a concrete tool for decision making in the form of AI scenarios, and
2. an action plan to prepare for different futures.

The workshops can also incorporate other elements from our global scenarios to provide businesses with a comprehensive view of how the global operating environment may change within the next 1–5 years due to geopolitics, macroeconomic shifts, and other factors.

Ready to discover the cutting edge of AI on an immersive field trip?

Join Nordic West Office for an exclusive fact-finding mission to the US West Coast, where we will explore the forefront of AI innovation!

The program will include visits to leading tech companies and start-ups, engaging sessions with industry experts, and networking opportunities with public and private entities.

The trip, scheduled for late 2024, will offer participants a unique chance to open doors and gain invaluable insights into the latest AI advancements.