The fall of the Iron Curtain, the end of the Cold War and Finland’s accession to the EU accustomed us to an environment in which both states and companies could largely anticipate each other’s actions rationally, based on ideologies and economic interests.
Geopolitics never disappeared from diplomatic circles or academic debate, of course. But ten years ago it no longer (or not yet) dominated evening news, government meeting agendas or quarterly reports. The world was open, supply chains worked, and political risks were manageable. Today, we find ourselves living in a very different reality.
At its simplest, geopolitics is about how geography shapes politics and how states and other actors navigate a world where location, natural resources, transport routes and neighbors create both risks and opportunities. Where access to the sea, major trade routes or mountain ranges once provided advantage, later it was abundant fossil energy resources. Today, increasingly, power is defined by access to critical minerals essential for semiconductors.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not only a humanitarian tragedy, but an economic rupture that overnight reshaped energy markets, logistics routes and defense investments. Ninety per cent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors travel through the Taiwan Strait. One fifth of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. These events may take place far away, but their consequences are felt close to home. They affect the backbone of corporate supply chains – and all of our wallets.
